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| Buying on Bad News |
By:
Joshua Kennon |
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Even the best companies, industries, and sectors fall out of favor from time to time. A fully-informed investor, with a
pocket full of cash and a firm understanding of the situation, can calmly stride into a turbulent market and buy up shares of
these underdogs at a fraction of their intrinsic value. How do you know which companies are permanent losers and which are
undervalued gems? Use these tests of quality to determine if you should invest your money or keep it stashed in cash.
Is the problem temporary or long-term?
You must be careful not to simply invest in a company because everyone else is running from it; sometimes there is reason to
run! Even after the share prices of companies such as Lucent and United Airlines had been cut by seventy-five percent, they
still did not constitute a good investment.
There are many companies that aren't worth buying at any price. Trash is trash, regardless of how much you pay for it.
In some cases, problems arise that are the result of one-time mistakes on the part of management. During the Savings and Loan
crisis, for example, bank stocks were beaten down to almost comical levels. An investor who mentioned he was purchasing
shares of these institutions was immediately scorned, mocked, and considered crazy by even close friends. At the same time,
firmly entrenched companies such as Wells Fargo (which boasted a solid balance sheet, established reputation, top-notch
management, and steady customer base), were hit just as hard as banks of lesser quality. Years later, those that had
exercised courage and relied on their analytical judgment by purchasing shares in such banks found their portfolios much
fatter. Remember the words of a very wise man; "you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd agrees with you; you are
right because your analysis says so."
Is the business an excellent business with a suitable market capitalization?
As always, you should be interested in non-asset intensive businesses with high returns on equity, little or no debt,
operating in non-commodity type industries without fixed cost structures. You should also attempt to look for under valuation
in larger rather than smaller companies. In the event of a retail recovery, for example, Wal-Mart is more likely to recover
sooner than a small specialty retailer such as Tuesday Morning. The owner of smaller issues may find himself waiting
considerably longer for his shares to realize their full value in the market.
Does management have an excellent track record?
The best indicator of future performance is past results. Great management tends to produce great results for everyone
involved, including the shareholders, employees, directors, executives, and customers. If a company has encountered
significant problems for consecutive years while the industry in which it operates prospers, it is likely that management has
been unwisely retained. In such cases, you and your pocketbook would be better off ignoring the empty promises of executives
who are only interested in keeping their jobs.
The quality of management question is perhaps one of the most important an investor must pose to himself. Coca-Cola is an
excellent example of how good management can make a great company even better.
A stellar performer for generations, it wasn't until Roberto Goizueta became CEO that the business became a truly global
powerhouse, throwing off cash to its stockholders faster than they could gulp it down. Between 1984 and 1993, Coca-Cola
acquired 570 million shares of its own stock through its stock repurchase program, reducing the shares outstanding from 3.174
billion to 2.604 billion. This 21% reduction resulted in significantly higher earnings-per-share for each of the remaining
shares of common stock, bolstering already mouth-watering operating results.
Are you financially able to wait out the storm?
After you've determined that the problem is temporary, management has an excellent track record, and the business possesses
excellent economics, there is still one question remaining before you take out your checkbook and purchase a seemingly
undervalued stock. Are you financially able to wait out the company's troubles? What are the odds that you will be forced to
sell your stock to meet another obligation?
If there is even the slightest chance of a forced sale due to a personal need for cash, don't even think about buying the
stock. "But it's a wonderful investment opportunity!" you may protest. Yes, it may turn out to be one of the best investments
of your life. However, if you do not have the luxury of waiting for the company's intrinsic value to be reflected in the
share price, you are gambling. As investors, we know that a good company will eventually be recognized by the market; we
don't know when. The moment you fail to make that distinction, you become a speculator. In the short run, anything can
happen. There is nothing to stop an undervalued stock from falling significantly further in price. You must have the time to
wait for the inevitable result of wise investing, regardless of whether it takes a week, month, or several years. In the end,
your sound analytical judgment and unshakable patience should be handsomely rewarded. |
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